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From a cyclical point of view, semiconductor design is in the downstream of the industry chain, and is deeply bound to terminal prices. Under the expectation of loosening upstream costs and easing downstream demand, it is expected to be the first to bottom out and rebound in 2023; although passive components do not belong to semiconductors, they are closely related to the semiconductor cycle. The coincidence degree is high, and the current price and inventory of passive components are at the bottom. It is expected that the second quarter of 2023 is expected to start a new round of business cycle.
Zhongtai Securities released a research report stating that from September 2022, the year-on-year growth rate of global semiconductor sales will enter a negative growth stage, which usually lasts for 5-7 months, and the inflection point of this cycle may appear in the first quarter of 2023 However, due to factors such as the epidemic and geopolitics, a delay in demand recovery may lead to a delay in the inflection point of this cycle. From the perspective of downstream demand, all links are still in the stage of destocking. Looking at the outlook for the fourth quarter of overseas major manufacturers, most design companies have shown negative year-on-year growth.
The research report pointed out that from a global perspective, all links are basically synchronized with the global semiconductor cycle: Among them, although the year-on-year growth rate of manufacturing, packaging and testing, and silicon wafer revenue is still positive, it has dropped significantly. In the design process, some companies in radio frequency, storage, and SoC have entered negative growth in the third quarter of 2022.
From the perspective of mainland China, equipment materials are independent of the global cycle, and the design process is ahead of the global response: Among them, equipment in the mainland is independent of the global cycle, and materials, manufacturing, packaging and testing are basically synchronized with the global cycle. The year-on-year revenue of some design sectors has entered a negative growth stage earlier than that of global semiconductors (mainly because the revenue growth rate of domestic design companies was much higher than the global level last year). In the second quarter of 2022, both analog and RF revenues have entered negative growth; in the third quarter At that time, the growth rate of analog and radio frequency was still negative, and MCU also entered a negative growth rate. The growth rate of other design companies dropped to 4%, and the growth rate of power semiconductors dropped to 14%. The FPGA sector still maintained a high growth rate of 40% in the third quarter due to its special downstream.
In 2021, China will be the largest semiconductor market in the world, but the overall self-sufficiency rate is less than 20%. Excluding the contribution of overseas manufacturers to build factories in China, the self-sufficiency rate of domestic IC manufacturers is only 6.6%, and the overall self-sufficiency rate of passive components is about 20%. %, is still at a low level, and there is much room for improvement in the future.
Therefore, the agency believes that strong alpha of domestic substitution under the background of high demand and low self-sufficiency rate is still the long-term logic of domestic semiconductor and passive component investment.
From a cyclical point of view, semiconductor design is in the downstream of the industry chain, and is deeply bound to terminal prices. Under the expectation of loosening upstream costs and easing downstream demand, it is expected to be the first to bottom out and rebound in 2023; although passive components do not belong to semiconductors, they are closely related to the semiconductor cycle. The coincidence degree is high, and the current price and inventory of passive components are at the bottom. It is expected that the second quarter of 2023 is expected to start a new round of business cycle.
From the perspective of alternative space, the largest downstream market segment of semiconductors is IC design, in which the digital, analog, and storage circuits have a large space, the localization rate is low, and the growth space is broad; the current localization rate of MLCC, inductors and other industries in the passive component industry is low. Manufacturers are actively deploying and have a certain degree of competitiveness. It is expected that the localization rate will continue to increase.
Therefore, it is optimistic that the first cycle of semiconductor design and passive sectors will bottom out in 2023, and the low self-sufficiency rate and large market size will also open up its long-term growth space in the future.
According to the Debon Securities Research Report, the electronics sector will decline in 2022, and the decline will be greater than that of other primary industries. The downstream demand for electronics is differentiated, 3C consumption is entering a cold winter, and photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, Xinchuang and other fields are affected by favorable macro factors such as carbon neutrality and localization, which will bring growth opportunities for the upstream electronics sector. The performance of semiconductor companies in the industry is relatively strong, and the profitability of companies in the fields of optical optoelectronics and consumer electronics has deteriorated. The overall valuation of the electronics sector is at a historically low level, close to the valuation level in the first half of 2019, while the semiconductor valuation level is relatively firm.
The research report pointed out that the current global semiconductor sales are still in a downward cycle. Judging from the last round of semiconductor sales data in China, the down cycle time is about 1.5-2 years. Considering that the current downward cycle starts from the end of 2021, the agency predicts that the growth rate of semiconductor sales in China may bottom out around the second quarter of 2023. According to IDC data, China's smartphone shipments in the third quarter of 2022 were 71.1 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 12%, narrowing the decline from the second quarter. According to companies such as MediaTek and TSMC, institutions expect inventory to decline in the fourth quarter of 2022 and return to normal levels in the first half of 2023.
In addition, according to IC Insights data, China's IC self-sufficiency rate in 2021 is only 16.7%, and it is expected to reach 19.37% in 2025 and 21.2% in 2026, which is generally at a low level. The overall localization rate of IC design is also low. In 2021, the localization rate of NandFlash and MPU is only about 1%, that of DRAM is about 2%, that of logic and analog chips is about 5%, and that of MCU is less than 15%. .
Previously, the US Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) stated that 2022 is a historic year for the global semiconductor industry, and the industry continues to face major challenges. The industry is known for its cycle, and it is expected that the market cycle will not rebound until the second half of 2023.
In addition, according to a report jointly released by SIA and Boston Consulting Group, it is estimated that by 2030, China's global share of semiconductor design is expected to increase to 23%, second only to the United States (36%), which ranks first, and surpass South Korea. (19%), ranking second in the world.
"Reposted from: International Electronic Business 9731.html"
