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The demand outlook for the whole year of 2024 is still unclear, so the original manufacturers believe that continued production reduction is still necessary.
International Electronic Business News on the 6th: The global IC industry will undergo major changes. According to research firm TechInsights, global IC sales will grow by 24% in 2024, which is 8% more than the previous forecast of 16% growth.
It is reported that the main driver of this major change is memory. TechInsights predicts that global memory product sales will surge by 71% in 2024, much higher than the previous forecast of 41%. This is due to much stronger than expected memory pricing due to limited supply and improving demand.
The report points out that from an inventory perspective, electronic OEM inventories continue to trend downward, with the inventory-to-shipment ratio falling below the historical average in the fourth quarter of 2023, indicating a return to healthy levels. Bank inventories are declining, but the inventory-to-bills ratio remains above historical norms, although it is approaching healthier levels.
In addition, according to TrendForce research, the current storage market is gradually recovering. In the fourth quarter of 2023, global DRAM industry revenue reached US$17.46 billion, a quarterly increase of 29.6%. At the same time, the revenue of global DRAM manufacturers including Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron and others increased year-on-year in this quarter.
Among the three major DRAM manufacturers, Samsung had the highest growth rate, with revenue reaching US$7.95 billion, a quarterly increase of more than 50%. This was mainly due to the increase in 1alpha nm DDR5 shipments, which caused server DRAM shipments to increase by more than 60%.
SK hynix benefited from the price advantages of HBM and DDR5, as well as profits from high-capacity server DRAM modules. Its average sales unit price increased by 17~19% quarterly, and its revenue in the fourth quarter reached US$5.56 billion. Quarterly growth of 20.2%.
Micron's sales volume and price are both rising. The proportion of DDR5 and HBM is relatively low, so the revenue growth rate is relatively moderate. In the fourth quarter, revenue reached US$3.35 billion, a quarterly increase of 8.9%.
Looking back on the past, DRAM began to fall in the fourth quarter of 2021, falling for eight consecutive quarters, and began to rise in the fourth quarter of 2023; NAND Flash began to fall in the third quarter of 2022, falling for four consecutive quarters, and by the third quarter of 2023 The quarter started to rise again.
Some people in the industry believe that the recent round of price increases is the market's recovery after a cold winter, but there is still some way to go before returning to the normal price level before the plunge. TrendForce said that DRAM contract prices will increase by approximately 13% to 18% in the first quarter of 2024, with Mobile DRAM continuing to lead the increase.
It is currently observed that since the demand outlook for 2024 is still unclear, the original manufacturers believe that continuous production reduction is still necessary to maintain the supply and demand balance of the memory industry.
Reposted from: International Electronic Commerce, automatically translated by Google
