Will silicon wafer oversupply extend to 2025?
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According to supply chain news, silicon wafer spot prices began to fall in the first half of 2023, and the decline continued into the second half of the year.
Recent forecasts from industry insiders, as well as the latest performance and market conditions of many silicon wafer manufacturers, show that the oversupply situation in the silicon wafer industry may be extended until 2025.
The three giants of silicon wafers say that corporate shipments continue to decline
The global silicon wafer market is highly concentrated, with Shin-Etsu Chemical SEH, SUMCO, Global Wafers, Siltronic, SK Siltron, France's Soitec, etc. occupying more than 95% of the market share. Among them, Shin-Etsu Chemical and SUMCO together account for more than half.
Recently, the latest financial report data of the three giants of silicon wafers, Shin-Etsu Chemical, Sumco, and Global Wafers, showed that operating profits fell in the third quarter, and the market conditions were overall weak. Currently, corporate shipments continue to decline.
Shin-Etsu Chemical announced its last quarter (July-September 2023) financial report at the end of October. Profits from silicon wafer-related businesses decreased and PVC prices fell, dragging down consolidated operating income to shrink by 21% from the same period last year to 596.7 billion yen, and consolidated operating profits fell sharply. 33% to 191 billion yen, and consolidated net profit dropped 29% to 147.8 billion yen. Profit shrank for the third consecutive quarter. Judging from the situation in the first half of the year (April-September 2023), Shin-Etsu Chemical's consolidated revenue fell 15% from the same period last year to 1,195.9 billion yen, consolidated profit dropped 29% to 381.9 billion yen, and consolidated net income dropped significantly 23% to 301.4 billion yen.
SUMCO announced its latest results from January to September of fiscal year 2023 on November 8. The consolidated net sales of the company were 320.851 billion yen, the revenue was 61.855 billion yen, and the ordinary income was 63.992 billion yen, which is owned by the parent company. or 58.937 billion yen, a year-on-year increase of 13.8%.
SUMCO financial report data shows that in the third quarter, as customers continued to adjust production, shipments of memory and logic 300mm wafers both declined. The market conditions for 200mm and smaller wafers were overall weak, and currently corporate shipments continue to decline. In the fourth quarter, it is expected that customer output adjustments will continue to target 300 mm wafer applications, and wafer shipments of 200 mm and below will continue to decline. In terms of price, both 300mm and 200mm wafers currently comply with long-term contract prices, while spot prices for smaller diameters show weakness.
Global Wafers' latest financial report data shows that consolidated revenue in the third fiscal quarter was 17.38 billion yuan, a quarterly decrease of 2.9% and an annual decrease of 3.7%; gross profit margin was 36.6%, a quarterly decrease of 1.1% and an annual decrease of 7.1%; after-tax net profit was 5.54 billion yuan. Quarterly growth was 15.7% and annual growth was 8.4%. Global Wafer stated that its revenue in the third quarter was affected by customers' continued inventory adjustments, and its gross profit was slightly lower than the previous quarter, mainly due to increased depreciation. The cumulative consolidated revenue in the first three quarters of this year was 53.89 billion yuan, an annual increase of 3.8%, the gross profit margin was 38.3%, an annual decrease of 5%; the after-tax net profit was 15.328 billion yuan, a significant increase of 60.1% compared to last year.
In addition to the financial reports released by the above-mentioned major manufacturers, silicon wafer manufacturer Taiwan Sembcorp recently warned that due to the weak momentum of shipments due to high inventory at the client end, the oversupply of 12-inch silicon wafers may expand next year, and the spot price of semiconductor silicon wafers is "nothing" "Optimistic conditions", the next two years will be quite challenging, while the long-term contract market is relatively stable, and it is expected that it will not recover until the second half of 2024.
Taiwan Sembcorp spokesman Qiu Shaoxun said that overall, although AI, high-performance computing, 5G, automotive, industrial control and other applications will drive demand for the semiconductor industry to recover, the current inventory of clients is still high, even if there is demand , customers will still give priority to digesting inventory, and coupled with the impact of the international situation, both consumers and companies have a relatively conservative view of the economy.
Reposted from: International Electronic Commerce, automatically translated by Google
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